Burton Albion 4-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion at Pirelli Stadium this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.90 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 53% versus Accrington ST 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 41% | Accrington ST 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Accrington ST 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.890 / defence 1.248 | Accrington ST attack 0.806 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.295. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Burton Albion games / 17 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 40% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 34%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Accrington ST 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 78% | Accrington ST 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 40% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Burton Albion 1.43 / Accrington ST 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.890 / def 1.248 | Accrington ST attack 0.806 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Accrington ST xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Accrington ST kick off?
Burton Albion vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Burton Albion 4 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST part of?
Burton Albion vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 40% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burton Albion and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Accrington ST in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.89) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.81x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.91
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.73
1.30
Accrington ST xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.30 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 8L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.24 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.29 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Accrington ST away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.56 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 4-0 on 23 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Accrington ST have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Burton Albion 0-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Burton Albion, 56% for Accrington ST — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Burton Albion) and 56% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Burton Albion's games and 56% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Burton Albion's matches and 56% of Accrington ST's.
Do Burton Albion and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burton Albion run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Accrington ST 4-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Accrington ST 1.30 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Accrington ST attack 0.81 / defence 1.39, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 40% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 34%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 41%, Accrington ST 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Accrington ST's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.12 PPG, Accrington ST 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.