Bolton 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bolton welcome Charlton to Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bolton stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bolton's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bolton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bolton 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Bolton hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Charlton and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Bolton 0–2 Charlton — a Charlton win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bolton and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charlton trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bolton 56% and Charlton 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Charlton 49%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Bolton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.207 / defence 1.154 | Charlton attack 1.111 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Data: built from Bolton's last 71 games and Charlton's last 70.
Result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.43 | Draw 4.13 | Charlton 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bolton 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bolton's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bolton 70% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Bolton 1.65 / Charlton 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.207 / def 1.154 | Charlton attack 1.111 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Bolton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Charlton xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bolton vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bolton's last 71 games and Charlton's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.15
1.50
Charlton xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bolton and 1.50 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 34W 17D 19L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 20W 27D 23L from 70 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Bolton are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 35 home games (19W 8D 8L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 14D 14L from their last 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.33 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 64%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Bolton (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bolton
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 34W 17D 19L in their last 70 games (1.70 PPG), while Charlton have gone 20W 27D 23L in their last 70 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.86 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won Charlton 1-4 Bolton.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Bolton vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bolton have won 6, Charlton have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Charlton 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 60%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bolton) and 40% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bolton and Charlton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bolton's games and 60% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bolton and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Bolton's recent games and 40% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Bolton's recent matches and 63% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Bolton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Bolton 1-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.21 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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