Bolton 3-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bolton (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bolton face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bolton welcome Charlton to Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bolton stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bolton's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bolton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bolton's games and 70% of Charlton's (from Bolton's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Bolton hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for Charlton and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Bolton 2–0 Charlton — a Bolton win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bolton and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charlton trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 42% versus Charlton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 40% | Charlton 53%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Bolton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.93 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.229 / defence 0.909 | Charlton attack 0.863 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Data: built from Bolton's last 76 games and Charlton's last 78.
Result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.65 | Draw 4.61 | Charlton 5.63. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bolton's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bolton 60% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bolton 1.93 / Charlton 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.229 / def 0.909 | Charlton attack 0.863 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Bolton (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bolton vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 3 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 61% chance of winning, Charlton a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bolton's last 76 games and Charlton's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.61
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.86
0.94
Charlton xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
38.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bolton and 0.94 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 42W 18D 18L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 23W 25D 30L from 78 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Bolton are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 38 home games (23W 8D 7L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 8W 14D 16L from their last 38 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.46 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Bolton (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bolton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 42W 18D 18L in their last 78 games (1.85 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 25D 30L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.03 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bolton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charlton in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won Charlton 1-4 Bolton.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Bolton vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bolton have won 6, Charlton have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Charlton 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 45%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bolton) and 45% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Charlton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bolton vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bolton and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bolton's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bolton and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bolton's recent games and 45% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bolton's recent matches and 63% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton and Charlton share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Bolton and Charlton drew 3-3 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.93 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 40%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 34
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →