Bolton 2-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bolton at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bolton face Cambridge United.

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Full Analysis

Toughsheet Community Stadium plays host to Bolton versus Cambridge United in League One (matchday 36). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bolton have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bolton at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bolton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bolton, 1.10 for Cambridge United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bolton edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Feb 2024, ended Bolton 2–1 Cambridge United — a Bolton win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 44% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 41% | Cambridge United 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.85 xG and Cambridge United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.297 / defence 1.042 | Cambridge United attack 0.924 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Bolton carry an above-average attack rating of 1.297 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bolton's last 80 games and Cambridge United's last 80.

Result probabilities: Bolton 54% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.87 | Draw 4.39 | Cambridge United 4.22. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bolton's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bolton 60% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 50% (last 10 away games).

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