AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ipswich make the trip to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to face AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.40 for Ipswich — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 56% versus Ipswich 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 52% | Ipswich 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.812 / defence 1.126 | Ipswich attack 0.987 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.233. Data: 25 AFC Wimbledon games / 27 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 44%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 60% | Ipswich 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.07 / Ipswich 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.812 / def 1.126 | Ipswich attack 0.987 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ipswich xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 29% chance of winning, Ipswich a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Ipswich (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.99x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.70
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.45
1.37
Ipswich xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.37 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 6W 10D 9L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 8L across 25 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.48 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 2W 7D 2L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich in 60%.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.18 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Ipswich have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 64%, Ipswich 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 36% of games; Ipswich in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 46% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat AFC Wimbledon 0-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Ipswich attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 44%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 52%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.12 PPG, Ipswich 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.