Accrington ST 2-3 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Accrington ST (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday away from home this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Wednesday are 0.60 PPG clear of Accrington ST in recent League One fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 62% versus Sheffield Wednesday 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 62% | Sheffield Wednesday 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.28 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.979 / defence 1.394 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.833 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. Data: 16 Accrington ST games / 17 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 31% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 44%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Wednesday are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 71% | Sheffield Wednesday 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 31% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Accrington ST 1.28 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.979 / def 1.394 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.833 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sheffield Wednesday xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Accrington ST 2 - 3 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 31% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.83x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
31%
3.20
25%
4.04
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.85
1.57
Sheffield Wednesday xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.57 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 6W 3D 7L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 6W 7D 3L from 16 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.56 for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sheffield Wednesday's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.86 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sheffield Wednesday have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Wednesday won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Accrington ST, 71% for Sheffield Wednesday — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Accrington ST and 57% for Sheffield Wednesday. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Sheffield Wednesday?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Accrington ST's games and 71% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Accrington ST's matches and 57% of Sheffield Wednesday's.
Do Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Wednesday edge out Accrington ST 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Accrington ST 2-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.28 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.57 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.98 / defence 1.39 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 31% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 44%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 62%, Sheffield Wednesday 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.31 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.