Accrington ST 3-1 Morecambe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Morecambe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Morecambe at Wham Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Morecambe stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Morecambe have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Accrington ST carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Accrington ST register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Morecambe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Accrington ST, 0 for Morecambe and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Morecambe in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 54% versus Morecambe 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 54% | Morecambe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.57 xG and Morecambe 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.999 / defence 1.089 | Morecambe attack 0.877 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.208. Data: 56 Accrington ST games / 56 Morecambe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 28%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Morecambe 3.57. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Morecambe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Morecambe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Accrington ST 1.57 / Morecambe 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.999 / def 1.089 | Morecambe attack 0.877 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Morecambe xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Morecambe kick off?
Accrington ST vs Morecambe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Morecambe?
Accrington ST 3 - 1 Morecambe.
Where is Accrington ST vs Morecambe being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Morecambe part of?
Accrington ST vs Morecambe is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Morecambe?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 47% chance of winning, Morecambe a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Morecambe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Accrington ST and Morecambe will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Morecambe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Morecambe?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 2 | Morecambe 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Morecambe in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Morecambe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Morecambe's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Morecambe's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.90
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.73
1.15
Morecambe xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Morecambe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Morecambe expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.15 for Morecambe, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Morecambe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 14D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Morecambe sit at 0.88 PPG from 56 outings (11W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Morecambe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 13W 9D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Morecambe have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Morecambe are on 1.14 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Morecambe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Morecambe in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 20W 14D 22L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while Morecambe have gone 11W 16D 29L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Morecambe away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.71 PPG; Morecambe away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Morecambe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
3
Morecambe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Morecambe?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Morecambe have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Morecambe last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Morecambe 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Morecambe?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 64%, Morecambe 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Accrington ST and 64% for Morecambe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Morecambe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Morecambe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Morecambe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Accrington ST's games and 61% of Morecambe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Morecambe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Accrington ST's matches and 64% of Morecambe's.
Do Accrington ST and Morecambe tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Morecambe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Morecambe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Morecambe 3-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.57 xG and Morecambe 1.15 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Morecambe attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 47% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 28%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 54%, Morecambe 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Morecambe's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.