West Brom 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as West Brom take on QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 12 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 6D 0L at The Hawthorns — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
QPR (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward West Brom. A 0.90 PPG lead over QPR (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, West Brom are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with West Brom winning.
The historical record gives West Brom a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 52% versus QPR 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 46% | QPR 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.19 xG and QPR 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.950 / defence 0.858 | QPR attack 1.040 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.234. Data: 52 West Brom games / 52 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 35% | Draw 35% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | QPR 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 50% | QPR 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 35% | Draw 35% | QPR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG West Brom 1.19 / QPR 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.950 / def 0.858 | QPR attack 1.040 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.10
QPR xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs QPR kick off?
West Brom vs QPR kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs QPR?
West Brom 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is West Brom vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs QPR part of?
West Brom vs QPR is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 35% chance of winning, QPR a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both West Brom and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
Record (9 meetings): West Brom 5W | Draws 2 | QPR 2W.
What form are West Brom and QPR in?
West Brom (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Brom's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.04x) against West Brom's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
35%
2.82
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.29
1.10
QPR xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are West Brom and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for West Brom and 1.10 for QPR, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 17W 15D 20L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
QPR's form line: 19W 12D 21L from 52 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for West Brom against 1.33 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (10W 11D 5L).
On the road, QPR have gone 8W 8D 10L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.31 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and QPR in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or QPR away?
West Brom's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.58 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
Have West Brom or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Brom
3
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 5, QPR have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and QPR?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 54%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (West Brom) and 50% (QPR).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; QPR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of West Brom's recent matches and 54% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of West Brom's recent games and 50% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and QPR tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, QPR in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and QPR finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.19 xG and QPR 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against QPR attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 35% | Draw 35% | QPR 30%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 46%, QPR 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.27 PPG, QPR 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.