West Brom 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Derby travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 4W 2D 0L from 6 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.33 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
West Brom are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.33 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Derby in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 67% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 67% | Derby 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.86 xG and Derby 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.349 / defence 1.114 | Derby attack 0.692 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.242. West Brom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 West Brom games / 6 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 17%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 5.88. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 67% | Derby 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG West Brom 1.86 / Derby 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.349 / def 1.114 | Derby attack 0.692 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: West Brom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Derby kick off?
West Brom vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Derby?
West Brom 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is West Brom vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Derby part of?
West Brom vs Derby is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 57% chance of winning, Derby a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both West Brom and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Derby in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.35x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.92
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.82
0.96
Derby xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
36.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are West Brom and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for West Brom and 0.96 for Derby, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 2D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. West Brom's scoring rate against Derby's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: West Brom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Derby in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while Derby have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Derby away?
West Brom's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.33 PPG; Derby away: 1.00 PPG.
Have West Brom or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
West Brom
2
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Derby have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Derby 1-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 67%, Derby 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (West Brom) and 33% (Derby).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Derby in 33%; Derby in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of West Brom's recent matches and 33% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of West Brom's recent games and 33% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Derby tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 7, as West Brom and Derby drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.86 xG and Derby 0.96 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Derby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.35 / defence 1.11 against Derby attack 0.69 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 17%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 67%, Derby 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.