West Brom 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 4 as West Brom welcome Charlton to The Hawthorns. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 3W 6D 1L at The Hawthorns — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Charlton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — West Brom at 1.60 PPG versus Charlton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for West Brom, 1 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
West Brom trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Charlton trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 53% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 49% | Charlton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.048 / defence 0.933 | Charlton attack 0.996 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Data: 49 West Brom games / 49 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 40% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG West Brom 1.41 / Charlton 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.048 / def 0.933 | Charlton attack 0.996 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Charlton kick off?
West Brom vs Charlton kicked off at 18:45 on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Charlton?
West Brom 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is West Brom vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Charlton part of?
West Brom vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both West Brom and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are West Brom and Charlton in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Brom's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.14
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.61
1.21
Charlton xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are West Brom and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for West Brom and 1.21 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 15W 14D 20L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 19L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.20 PPG, Charlton on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 9W 10D 5L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 10D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Charlton in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 14D 19L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Charlton away?
West Brom's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.54 PPG; Charlton away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
West Brom's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
West Brom
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Charlton?
From 3 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 54%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (West Brom) and 38% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of West Brom's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of West Brom's recent games and 38% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Charlton tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charlton in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.21 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Charlton attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 49%, Charlton 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.