West Brom 2-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Bournemouth travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Brom stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for West Brom, 0 for Bournemouth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
West Brom trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bournemouth trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 30% versus Bournemouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 32% | Bournemouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 0.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.878 / defence 0.958 | Bournemouth attack 1.059 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.098. Data: 39 West Brom games / 37 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 40%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Bournemouth 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 30% | Bournemouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG West Brom 0.91 / Bournemouth 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.878 / def 0.958 | Bournemouth attack 1.059 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bournemouth xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Brom vs Bournemouth kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Bournemouth?
West Brom 2 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is West Brom vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Bournemouth part of?
West Brom vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 29% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both West Brom and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 1 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are West Brom and Bournemouth in?
West Brom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.29
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Bournemouth xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are West Brom and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for West Brom and 1.11 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 13W 11D 13L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 21W 9D 7L from 37 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Brom.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (8W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 9W 4D 4L from 17 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.68 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: West Brom have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Bournemouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 13W 11D 13L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Bournemouth away?
West Brom's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.82 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.82 PPG.
Have West Brom or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
West Brom
1
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Bournemouth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when West Brom 2-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Bournemouth?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — West Brom 29% BTTS, Bournemouth 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for West Brom and 29% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Bournemouth in 59%; West Brom have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of West Brom's recent matches and 35% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of West Brom's recent games and 29% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Bournemouth 2-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 0.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Bournemouth attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 29% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 40%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 32%, Bournemouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bournemouth's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with West Brom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.