Watford 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Watford face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vicarage Road plays host to Watford versus Sunderland in Championship (matchday 45). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Watford have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Watford have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sunderland away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Watford, 1 for Sunderland and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2023, ended Watford 0–2 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Watford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 49% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 44% | Sunderland 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 0.88 xG and Sunderland 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 0.815 / defence 1.052 | Sunderland attack 0.871 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.149. Sunderland bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Watford's projected output down. Data: built from Watford's last 90 games and Sunderland's last 90.
Result probabilities: Watford 30% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 39%. Fair-value odds: Watford 3.36 | Draw 3.19 | Sunderland 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Watford's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Watford 70% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 30% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Watford 0.88 / Sunderland 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 0.815 / def 1.052 | Sunderland attack 0.871 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Watford xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sunderland xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Watford vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Watford vs Sunderland kick off?
Watford vs Sunderland kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs Sunderland?
Watford 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Watford vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs Sunderland part of?
Watford vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 30% chance of winning, Sunderland a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Watford and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Watford vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Watford's attack rating (0.81) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.87x) against Watford's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Watford's last 90 games and Sunderland's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.19
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Watford xG
Total xG
1.93
1.05
Sunderland xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Watford vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Watford and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Watford and 1.05 for Sunderland, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Watford's recent record stands at 28W 32D 30L from 90 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 34W 22D 34L across 90 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Watford against 1.38 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Watford have managed 16W 15D 14L from their last 45 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 16W 12D 17L across their last 45 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Watford are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.31 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Watford (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Watford
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Watford vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Watford and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 28W 32D 30L in their last 90 games (1.29 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 34W 22D 34L in their last 90 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or Sunderland away?
Watford's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 1.40 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Watford or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Watford have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Watford and Sunderland, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Watford
3
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Watford vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Watford have won 2, Sunderland have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Watford and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Sunderland 2-2 Watford.
Who has won more matches between Watford and Sunderland?
Watford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Watford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 53%, Sunderland 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Watford) and 42% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Watford keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Watford vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Watford and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Watford's recent matches and 49% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Watford and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Watford's recent games and 42% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Watford and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Watford's recent matches and 71% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Watford defy the odds to beat Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Watford beat Sunderland 1-0 at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 0.88 xG and Sunderland 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 30% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 39%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Watford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 44%, Sunderland 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 1.29 PPG, Sunderland 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Watford win broke the near-deadlock. Watford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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