Swansea 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and West Brom meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Brom (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Brom away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Swansea, 1.40 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Swansea have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with West Brom managing 2 and 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Swansea 0–1 West Brom — a West Brom win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Swansea and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 55% versus West Brom 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 54% | West Brom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.41 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.098 / defence 1.209 | West Brom attack 1.095 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.012. Swansea's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Brom's projected output up. Data: built from Swansea's last 71 games and West Brom's last 71.
Result probabilities: Swansea 38% | Draw 28% | West Brom 34%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.64 | Draw 3.61 | West Brom 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Swansea 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 50% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, matchday 26 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 38% | Draw 28% | West Brom 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Swansea 1.41 / West Brom 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.098 / def 1.209 | West Brom attack 1.095 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Swansea (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.34
West Brom xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs West Brom FAQs
What time does Swansea vs West Brom kick off?
Swansea vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Swansea 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Swansea vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs West Brom part of?
Swansea vs West Brom is a Championship fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 38% chance of winning, West Brom a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Swansea and West Brom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.09x) against Swansea's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 71 games and West Brom's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.61
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.75
1.34
West Brom xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs West Brom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Swansea and 1.34 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea come into this having played 71 games, going 24W 18D 29L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.58 PPG from 71 outings (29W 25D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Swansea against 1.58 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Swansea's home form reads 13W 9D 13L across their last 35 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 35 away games (10W 13D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.38 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
West Brom
Blended
Swansea (Home) vs West Brom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Swansea vs West Brom Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and West Brom in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 24W 18D 29L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while West Brom have gone 29W 25D 17L in their last 71 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or West Brom away?
Swansea's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.37 PPG; West Brom away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Swansea or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, West Brom in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Swansea and West Brom, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
1
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs West Brom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Brom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 6, West Brom have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Swansea and West Brom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: Swansea 1-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and West Brom?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 51%, West Brom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Swansea) and 57% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs West Brom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and West Brom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Swansea's games and 63% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swansea and West Brom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Swansea's recent games and 57% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and West Brom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Swansea's recent matches and 74% of West Brom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.41 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.10 / defence 1.21 against West Brom attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 38% | Draw 28% | West Brom 34%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 54%, West Brom 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, West Brom 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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