Swansea 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Swansea at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Portsmouth at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Portsmouth have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 0.80 PPG versus Portsmouth's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Swansea register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Portsmouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swansea, 1 for Portsmouth and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2025, ended 0–4 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Portsmouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 47% | Portsmouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.62 xG and Portsmouth 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.917 / defence 1.149 | Portsmouth attack 0.785 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.223. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Swansea games / 64 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 49% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 26%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Portsmouth 3.85. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Portsmouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 49% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Swansea 1.62 / Portsmouth 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.917 / def 1.149 | Portsmouth attack 0.785 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Swansea (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Portsmouth xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Portsmouth kick off?
Swansea vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 December 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Swansea 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Swansea vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Portsmouth part of?
Swansea vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 49% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Swansea and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Portsmouth?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Swansea and Portsmouth in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.92x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.00
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.72
1.10
Portsmouth xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Swansea and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Swansea and 1.10 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 22W 15D 27L from 64 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 29L across 64 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.27 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 12W 8D 11L from 31 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portsmouth's away record stands at 4W 8D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 22W 15D 27L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 18W 17D 29L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Portsmouth away?
Swansea's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.42 PPG; Portsmouth away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swansea go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jan 2025, when Portsmouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Portsmouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Portsmouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Portsmouth?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Portsmouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Swansea) and 61% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Portsmouth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 58% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Swansea's recent games and 61% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.62 xG and Portsmouth 1.10 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Portsmouth attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 49% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 47%, Portsmouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, Portsmouth 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.