Sunderland 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sunderland at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Sunderland 1–0 Hull City — a Sunderland win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 46% versus Hull City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Hull City 50%). Note also that Hull City surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Sunderland recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.38 xG and Hull City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.073 / defence 0.969 | Hull City attack 1.000 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.032. Data: built from Sunderland's last 79 games and Hull City's last 78.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.22 | Draw 3.56 | Hull City 3.72. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 70% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sunderland 1.38 / Hull City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.073 / def 0.969 | Hull City attack 1.000 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hull City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Hull City kick off?
Sunderland vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Sunderland vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Hull City part of?
Sunderland vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 45% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sunderland and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sunderland vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.07x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.00x) against Sunderland's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 79 games and Hull City's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Hull City xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.00 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 33W 19D 26L from 78 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 30L across 78 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sunderland against 1.28 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 20W 8D 10L from their last 38 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 16W 6D 16L across their last 38 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 33W 19D 26L in their last 78 games (1.51 PPG), while Hull City have gone 26W 22D 30L in their last 78 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Hull City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.79 PPG; Hull City away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 45%, Hull City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sunderland) and 58% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sunderland's recent matches and 55% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sunderland's matches and 58% of Hull City's.
Do Sunderland and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sunderland's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.38 xG and Hull City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Hull City attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.51 PPG, Hull City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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