Sunderland 2-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sunderland welcome Blackburn to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 December 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadium of Light — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackburn have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 1.40 PPG versus Blackburn's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Blackburn 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 52% versus Blackburn 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Blackburn 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.12 xG and Blackburn 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.962 / defence 1.069 | Blackburn attack 0.798 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.170. Data: 23 Sunderland games / 69 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 32%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Blackburn 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Blackburn 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sunderland 1.12 / Blackburn 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.962 / def 1.069 | Blackburn attack 0.798 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Blackburn xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Blackburn kick off?
Sunderland vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Sunderland 2 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Sunderland vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Blackburn part of?
Sunderland vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 38% chance of winning, Blackburn a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sunderland and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Blackburn (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.96x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.36
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.12
1.00
Blackburn xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.00 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 32W 20D 17L from 69 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 25L across 69 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.68 PPG, Blackburn on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 20W 7D 8L from 35 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 12W 7D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.25 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 32W 20D 17L in their last 69 games (1.68 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 32W 12D 25L in their last 69 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Blackburn away?
Sunderland's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.91 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Blackburn in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Blackburn runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Blackburn have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 49%, Blackburn 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sunderland) and 37% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Blackburn in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sunderland's recent matches and 34% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sunderland's recent games and 37% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Blackburn tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Blackburn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Blackburn 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.12 xG and Blackburn 1.00 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Blackburn attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 38% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 32%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Blackburn 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.68 PPG, Blackburn 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.