Stoke City 0-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 42 as Stoke City welcome Bristol City to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stoke City have posted 3W 2D 5L at bet365 Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bristol City stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bristol City's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stoke City 1.10 PPG, Bristol City 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stoke City, 1 for Bristol City and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Bristol City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bristol City trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stoke City 54% and Bristol City 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 49% | Bristol City 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.86 xG and Bristol City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.013 / defence 1.140 | Bristol City attack 0.890 / defence 1.767. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.095. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.767 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Stoke City games / 41 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 55% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 23%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Bristol City 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stoke City at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 50% | Bristol City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 55% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Stoke City 1.86 / Bristol City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.013 / def 1.140 | Bristol City attack 0.890 / def 1.767 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bristol City xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Bristol City kick off?
Stoke City vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Stoke City vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Bristol City part of?
Stoke City vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 55% chance of winning, Bristol City a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stoke City and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Bristol City?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 0W | Draws 0 | Bristol City 1W.
What form are Stoke City and Bristol City in?
Stoke City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Bristol City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stoke City's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 1.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.42
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.97
1.11
Bristol City xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
4%
28.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.11 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 10D 16L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.10 PPG from 41 outings (12W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.34 PPG, Bristol City on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stoke City's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stoke City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.27 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Bristol City away?
Stoke City's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.55 PPG; Bristol City away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bristol City in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Bristol City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Stoke City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Bristol City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stoke City
1
Draws
5
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 4, Bristol City have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 45%, Bristol City 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for Stoke City and 75% for Bristol City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bristol City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Stoke City's games and 65% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stoke City vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Stoke City's matches and 75% of Bristol City's.
Do Stoke City and Bristol City tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol City defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.86 xG and Bristol City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Bristol City attack 0.89 / defence 1.77, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 55% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 23%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bristol City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 49%, Bristol City 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.34 PPG, Bristol City 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.