Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sheffield Wednesday face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday host Cardiff at Hillsborough in Championship (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sheffield Wednesday stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cardiff — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cardiff away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sheffield Wednesday at 1.40 PPG versus Cardiff's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 2 for Cardiff and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Cardiff — a Cardiff win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Wednesday trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cardiff trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 38% versus Cardiff 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 48% | Cardiff 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.68 xG and Cardiff 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.042 / defence 1.388 | Cardiff attack 0.762 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.002. Cardiff's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sheffield Wednesday's projected output up. Cardiff's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 1.388 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cardiff's projected output up. Data: built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 61 games and Cardiff's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 51% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 23%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.97 | Draw 3.79 | Cardiff 4.38. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Wednesday's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sheffield Wednesday 40% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 16 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 51% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.68 / Cardiff 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.042 / def 1.388 | Cardiff attack 0.762 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cardiff xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 51% chance of winning, Cardiff a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (1.04) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 61 games and Cardiff's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.79
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.74
1.06
Cardiff xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.06 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Wednesday come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 11D 30L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (23W 8D 30L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.16 PPG, Cardiff on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sheffield Wednesday's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 5D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.10 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 20W 11D 30L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 23W 8D 30L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Cardiff away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.40 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Cardiff 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 47%, Cardiff 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 50% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 33% of games; Cardiff in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 47% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 50% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 67% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff finished level at 1-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.68 xG and Cardiff 1.06 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.04 / defence 1.39 against Cardiff attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 51% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 23%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 48%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.16 PPG, Cardiff 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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