Sheffield Utd 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sheffield Utd (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sheffield Utd face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Bramall Lane to face Sheffield Utd in Championship, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 20 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Bramall Lane this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bramall Lane this season.
Hull City (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sheffield Utd. A 1.10 PPG lead over Hull City (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sheffield Utd lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Sheffield Utd winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 47% versus Hull City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 45% | Hull City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.80 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 1.430 / defence 0.964 | Hull City attack 1.166 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.191. Sheffield Utd carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 73 Sheffield Utd games / 73 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 3.45. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Utd are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Utd 60% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.80 / Hull City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 1.430 / def 0.964 | Hull City attack 1.166 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hull City xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 48% chance of winning, Hull City a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Sheffield Utd 2W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 1.43x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.17x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
3.14
1.34
Hull City xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.34 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 73 games, going 38W 17D 18L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.16 PPG from 73 outings (23W 16D 34L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 21W 8D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.25 points per game from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.01 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 38W 17D 18L in their last 73 games (1.79 PPG), while Hull City have gone 23W 16D 34L in their last 73 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Hull City away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.97 PPG; Hull City away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hull City in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won 0-3 on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 5, Hull City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 44%, Hull City 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sheffield Utd) and 36% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hull City in 36%; Hull City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 36% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sheffield Utd's recent games and 36% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Utd and Hull City tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hull City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 1-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.80 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.43 / defence 0.96 against Hull City attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 45%, Hull City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.