QPR 2-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
QPR welcome Rotherham to MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
QPR's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rotherham stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Rotherham have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for QPR, 1 for Rotherham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended QPR 1–1 Rotherham — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
QPR trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rotherham trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Rotherham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 47% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.862 / defence 1.059 | Rotherham attack 0.821 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Rotherham's defence rating of 1.490 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 79 games and Rotherham's last 79.
Result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.88 | Draw 4.28 | Rotherham 4.28. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Rotherham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 50% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG QPR 1.77 / Rotherham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.862 / def 1.059 | Rotherham attack 0.821 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: QPR (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rotherham xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does QPR vs Rotherham kick off?
QPR vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Rotherham?
QPR 2 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is QPR vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Rotherham part of?
QPR vs Rotherham is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 53% chance of winning, Rotherham a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both QPR and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 79 games and Rotherham's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.28
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
QPR xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Rotherham xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
25.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for QPR and 1.10 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR's recent record stands at 21W 19D 39L from 79 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 14W 27D 38L across 79 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.04 PPG, Rotherham on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, QPR have managed 9W 10D 20L from their last 39 home games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 2W 15D 22L across their last 39 away games, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.99 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Rotherham in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 21W 19D 39L in their last 79 games (1.04 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 14W 27D 38L in their last 79 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Rotherham away?
QPR's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.95 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Rotherham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: QPR 2-1 Rotherham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 51%, Rotherham 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (QPR) and 46% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 38% of games; Rotherham in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of QPR's recent matches and 41% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of QPR's recent matches and 69% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Rotherham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Rotherham 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Rotherham attack 0.82 / defence 1.49, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rotherham's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.04 PPG, Rotherham 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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