QPR 1-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Preston at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
QPR's home record at MATRADE Loftus Road: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.50 PPG versus Preston's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, QPR have won 3, Preston 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Preston in-play and half-time data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Preston 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 47% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.02 xG and Preston 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.843 / defence 1.242 | Preston attack 0.809 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.134. Data: 89 QPR games / 89 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Preston 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Preston as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: QPR 70% | Preston 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG QPR 1.02 / Preston 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.843 / def 1.242 | Preston attack 0.809 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Preston (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Preston xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Preston kick off?
QPR vs Preston kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Preston?
QPR 1 - 0 Preston.
Where is QPR vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Preston part of?
QPR vs Preston is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 32% chance of winning, Preston a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both QPR and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Preston?
Record (5 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 0 | Preston 2W.
What form are QPR and Preston in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Preston (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
QPR's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.40
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
QPR xG
Total xG
2.16
1.14
Preston xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for QPR and 1.14 for Preston, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR's recent record stands at 25W 22D 42L from 89 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 35W 21D 33L across 89 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.09 PPG, Preston on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, QPR have managed 11W 11D 22L from 44 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 17W 10D 17L across 44 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.13 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 89 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Preston in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 25W 22D 42L in their last 89 games (1.09 PPG), while Preston have gone 35W 21D 33L in their last 89 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.00 PPG; Preston away: 1.39 PPG.
Have QPR or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Preston in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
QPR's record when hosting Preston specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
2
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Preston have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Preston 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Preston?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Preston 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 46% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 39%; QPR have failed to score in 39% of games; Preston in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 39% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Preston tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Preston in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Preston 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Preston 1-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.02 xG and Preston 1.14 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preston landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Preston attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.09 PPG, Preston 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.