QPR 2-2 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium plays host to QPR versus Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
QPR at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Middlesbrough (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for QPR, 2.20 for Middlesbrough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — QPR lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 57% versus Middlesbrough 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 54% | Middlesbrough 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.07 xG and Middlesbrough 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.993 / defence 0.866 | Middlesbrough attack 0.760 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.112. Data: 28 QPR games / 28 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 32% | Middlesbrough 25%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Middlesbrough 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Middlesbrough's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 20% | Middlesbrough 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 32% | Middlesbrough 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG QPR 1.07 / Middlesbrough 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.993 / def 0.866 | Middlesbrough attack 0.760 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: QPR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Middlesbrough xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Middlesbrough kick off?
QPR vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
QPR 2 - 2 Middlesbrough.
Where is QPR vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Middlesbrough part of?
QPR vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 43% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both QPR and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Middlesbrough?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 0W.
What form are QPR and Middlesbrough in?
QPR (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Middlesbrough (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (0.76x) against QPR's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.10
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
QPR xG
Total xG
1.80
0.73
Middlesbrough xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for QPR and 0.73 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, QPR have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 15W 6D 7L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Middlesbrough's form line: 13W 6D 9L from 28 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for QPR against 1.61 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.14 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: QPR have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Middlesbrough in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 6D 7L in their last 28 games (1.82 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Middlesbrough away?
QPR's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 2.00 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.23 PPG.
Have QPR or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Middlesbrough go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 0-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
1
Draws
6
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Middlesbrough have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Middlesbrough see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (QPR) and 38% (Middlesbrough) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for QPR and 23% for Middlesbrough.
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Middlesbrough in 31%; Middlesbrough in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of QPR's recent matches and 38% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of QPR's recent games and 23% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as QPR and Middlesbrough drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.07 xG and Middlesbrough 0.73 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Middlesbrough outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Middlesbrough attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 32% | Middlesbrough 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 54%, Middlesbrough 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.82 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.