QPR 0-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Blackpool meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
QPR (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Loftus Road this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackpool's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Blackpool have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackpool's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for QPR against 1.10 for Blackpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — QPR lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Blackpool — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 57% versus Blackpool 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 53% | Blackpool 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.66 xG and Blackpool 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.117 / defence 1.181 | Blackpool attack 0.886 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.979. Data: 49 QPR games / 49 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Blackpool 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Blackpool 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG QPR 1.66 / Blackpool 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.117 / def 1.181 | Blackpool attack 0.886 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: QPR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Blackpool xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Blackpool kick off?
QPR vs Blackpool kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Blackpool?
QPR 0 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is QPR vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Blackpool part of?
QPR vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 52% chance of winning, Blackpool a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both QPR and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackpool?
Record (2 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 1 | Blackpool 0W.
What form are QPR and Blackpool in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Blackpool (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.12x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.89x) against QPR's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.91
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
QPR xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
Blackpool xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
23.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for QPR and 1.02 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 20W 10D 19L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 20L across 49 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for QPR against 1.29 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 5W 9D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.12 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Blackpool in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 20W 10D 19L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 17W 12D 20L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Blackpool away?
QPR's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.62 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Blackpool have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 6-1 on 14 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackpool?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Blackpool have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2023, when Blackpool 6-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Blackpool 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (QPR) and 38% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Blackpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of QPR's games and 67% of Blackpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of QPR's recent games and 38% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Blackpool tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackpool defy the odds to beat QPR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat QPR 0-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.66 xG and Blackpool 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. QPR fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Blackpool attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 52% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Blackpool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 53%, Blackpool 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackpool's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.43 PPG, Blackpool 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.