Preston 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preston vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Fulham travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Preston — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Fulham have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's away record: 6W 1D 2L from 9 road trips in Championship this season (2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Preston in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fulham in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 58% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 53% | Fulham 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.99 xG and Fulham 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.954 / defence 1.198 | Fulham attack 1.685 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.063. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.685 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Preston games / 19 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 15% | Draw 23% | Fulham 62%. Fair-value odds: Preston 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Fulham 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Preston 67% | Fulham 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 15% | Draw 23% | Fulham 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Preston 0.99 / Fulham 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.954 / def 1.198 | Fulham attack 1.685 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Fulham (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Preston xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Fulham xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Fulham kick off?
Preston vs Fulham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Fulham?
Preston 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Preston vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Fulham part of?
Preston vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 15% chance of winning, Fulham a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Preston and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preston and Fulham in?
Preston (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fulham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Preston's attack at 0.95x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
15%
6.69
23%
4.43
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Preston xG
Total xG
3.13
2.15
Fulham xG
6.69
15%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
12%
8.54
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
57.18
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Preston and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Preston and 2.15 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 6D 7L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Preston — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Preston are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.11 points per game from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.53 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Fulham in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Fulham have gone 13W 3D 3L in their last 19 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.67 PPG; Fulham away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Preston or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fulham in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Fulham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preston
1
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Preston have won 0, Fulham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Fulham 3-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 67%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Preston) and 67% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fulham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Preston's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Preston's matches and 67% of Fulham's.
Do Preston and Fulham tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 20, as Preston and Fulham drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.99 xG and Fulham 2.15 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fulham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.95 / defence 1.20 against Fulham attack 1.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 15% | Draw 23% | Fulham 62%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 53%, Fulham 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.