Preston 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Preston's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Preston have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Preston, 2 for Derby and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Preston winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 62% versus Derby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 46% | Derby 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.27 xG and Derby 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.000 / defence 0.919 | Derby attack 1.148 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Data: 72 Preston games / 72 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 38% | Draw 28% | Derby 34%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Derby 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 38% | Draw 28% | Derby 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Preston 1.27 / Derby 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.000 / def 0.919 | Derby attack 1.148 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Preston (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Derby kick off?
Preston vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Derby?
Preston 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Preston vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Derby part of?
Preston vs Derby is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 38% chance of winning, Derby a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Preston and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 2 | Derby 2W.
What form are Preston and Derby in?
Preston (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Preston's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.15x) against Preston's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
38%
2.67
28%
3.55
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Preston xG
Total xG
2.47
1.20
Derby xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Preston and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Preston and 1.20 for Derby, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Preston have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 21W 30D 21L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 22W 19D 31L from 72 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Preston against 1.18 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (13W 17D 5L).
On the road, Derby have gone 9W 9D 17L from 35 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.15 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Derby in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 30D 21L in their last 72 games (1.29 PPG), while Derby have gone 22W 19D 31L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Derby away?
Preston's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.60 PPG; Derby away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
2
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 63%, Derby 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Preston) and 54% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Preston's games and 66% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Preston's recent games and 54% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Derby tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Derby in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Preston 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Preston 0-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.27 xG and Derby 1.20 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Preston fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Derby attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 38% | Draw 28% | Derby 34%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Derby 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.29 PPG, Derby 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.