Portsmouth 3-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Portsmouth at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host West Brom at Fratton Park in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Portsmouth have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's home record at Fratton Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Brom stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Portsmouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, West Brom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Portsmouth have won 0, West Brom 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Portsmouth trading profile (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
West Brom trading profile (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus West Brom 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | West Brom 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.40 xG and West Brom 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.898 / defence 0.961 | West Brom attack 0.809 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.164. Data: 73 Portsmouth games / 75 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 47% | Draw 30% | West Brom 23%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 4.35. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
West Brom lead the H2H ledger, but Portsmouth carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Portsmouth 60% | West Brom 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 47% | Draw 30% | West Brom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Portsmouth 1.40 / West Brom 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.898 / def 0.961 | West Brom attack 0.809 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
West Brom xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs West Brom kick off?
Portsmouth vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Portsmouth 3 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Portsmouth vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs West Brom part of?
Portsmouth vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 47% chance of winning, West Brom a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Portsmouth and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and West Brom?
Record (3 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 2W.
What form are Portsmouth and West Brom in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. West Brom (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.90) and West Brom's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.37
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.30
0.91
West Brom xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.91 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 21W 21D 31L from 73 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 23W 23D 27L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.15 PPG, West Brom on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 16W 11D 10L from 37 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
West Brom's away record stands at 6W 12D 19L across 37 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and West Brom in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 21W 21D 31L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while West Brom have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or West Brom away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.59 PPG; West Brom away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and West Brom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2025, when West Brom won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 1, West Brom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Portsmouth 3-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 54%, West Brom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Portsmouth) and 43% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Portsmouth have failed to score in 27% of games; West Brom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Portsmouth's games and 62% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portsmouth vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Portsmouth's recent games and 43% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and West Brom tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, West Brom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat West Brom 3-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.40 xG and West Brom 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against West Brom attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 47% | Draw 30% | West Brom 23%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.15 PPG, West Brom 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.