Plymouth 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Portsmouth meet at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Portsmouth in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Portsmouth and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Portsmouth 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Portsmouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.49 xG and Portsmouth 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.227 / defence 1.316 | Portsmouth attack 1.011 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.014. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Plymouth games / 13 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Portsmouth 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Portsmouth 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG Plymouth 2.49 / Portsmouth 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.227 / def 1.316 | Portsmouth attack 1.011 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Portsmouth xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Portsmouth kick off?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Plymouth vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Portsmouth part of?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Plymouth and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 2 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.23) and Portsmouth's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.01x) against Plymouth's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 59/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.92
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.84
1.35
Portsmouth xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
2%
66.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.35 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 15D 28L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 29W 19D 11L from 59 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plymouth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 13W 11D 5L from 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 29W 19D 11L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.59 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Portsmouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2025, when Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 59%, Portsmouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 48% (Portsmouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Portsmouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Plymouth's games and 52% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 48% of Portsmouth's.
Do Plymouth and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.49 xG and Portsmouth 1.35 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.23 / defence 1.32 against Portsmouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Portsmouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.