Peterborough 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Fulham meet at Weston Homes Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Fulham have posted 5W 1D 2L from 8 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Fulham in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 50% versus Fulham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Peterborough 69% | Fulham 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.23 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.062 / defence 1.140 | Fulham attack 1.743 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.140. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.743 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Peterborough games / 16 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 19% | Draw 20% | Fulham 60%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Fulham 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 62% | Fulham 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 19% | Draw 20% | Fulham 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Peterborough 1.23 / Fulham 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.062 / def 1.140 | Fulham attack 1.743 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Fulham (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Fulham xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Fulham kick off?
Peterborough vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Fulham?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Peterborough vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Fulham part of?
Peterborough vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 19% chance of winning, Fulham a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Peterborough and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Fulham in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Fulham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.74x) against Peterborough's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
19%
5.14
20%
4.96
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.49
2.26
Fulham xG
5.14
19%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
10%
9.62
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
2%
49.42
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Peterborough and 2.26 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 3D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.19 PPG from 16 outings (11W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Peterborough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.00 points per game from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.69 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Fulham in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Fulham have gone 11W 2D 3L in their last 16 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.50 PPG; Fulham away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Fulham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2022, when Fulham 2-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 62%, Fulham 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Peterborough and 75% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Peterborough's games and 62% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Peterborough's matches and 75% of Fulham's.
Do Peterborough and Fulham tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Fulham in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.23 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Fulham attack 1.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 19% | Draw 20% | Fulham 60%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Fulham 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.