Nottingham Forest 4-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 43 as Nottingham Forest welcome West Brom to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Nottingham Forest's home record at The City Ground: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nottingham Forest, 0 for West Brom and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
West Brom trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 50% versus West Brom 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 48% | West Brom 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.61 xG and West Brom 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.266 / defence 0.855 | West Brom attack 0.659 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.135. Nottingham Forest carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. West Brom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Nottingham Forest games / 42 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 25% | West Brom 15%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | West Brom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 40% | West Brom 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 25% | West Brom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 38% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.61 / West Brom 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.266 / def 0.855 | West Brom attack 0.659 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.64
West Brom xG
38%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs West Brom kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs West Brom?
Nottingham Forest 4 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs West Brom part of?
Nottingham Forest vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 61% chance of winning, West Brom a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nottingham Forest and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): Nottingham Forest 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and West Brom in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. West Brom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.07
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.25
0.64
West Brom xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
3%
34.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.64 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs West Brom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 19W 10D 11L from 40 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 14L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.68 PPG, West Brom on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 11W 4D 5L from 20 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.05 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; West Brom in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and West Brom in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 19W 10D 11L in their last 40 games (1.68 PPG), while West Brom have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or West Brom away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.85 PPG; West Brom away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, West Brom in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
0
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and West Brom?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, West Brom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Nottingham Forest 4-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and West Brom?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
West Brom see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 45%, West Brom 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Nottingham Forest) and 35% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; West Brom in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 30% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 35% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and West Brom tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, West Brom in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 4-0 hammering of West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat West Brom 4-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.61 xG and West Brom 0.64 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against West Brom attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 25% | West Brom 15%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 48%, West Brom 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Brom's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.68 PPG, West Brom 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.