Nottingham Forest 5-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Swansea at The City Ground in Championship, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Swansea have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Nottingham Forest are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Nottingham Forest's 30% rate and Swansea's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Swansea 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 46% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 46% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 2.03 xG and Swansea 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.384 / defence 0.823 | Swansea attack 1.062 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.155. Nottingham Forest carry an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Nottingham Forest games / 44 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 21% | Swansea 18%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Swansea 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 30% | Swansea 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 21% | Swansea 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Nottingham Forest 2.03 / Swansea 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.384 / def 0.823 | Swansea attack 1.062 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Swansea xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Swansea kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Swansea?
Nottingham Forest 5 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Swansea part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 61% chance of winning, Swansea a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 0 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Swansea in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 1.38x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.79
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.04
1.01
Swansea xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
42.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.01 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 22W 10D 11L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 14L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.77 PPG, Swansea on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Swansea in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Swansea in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Swansea have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Swansea away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.90 PPG; Swansea away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Swansea in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Swansea?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Swansea have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Nottingham Forest 5-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Swansea?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 43%, Swansea 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nottingham Forest) and 52% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Swansea in 33%; Swansea in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 38% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 52% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Swansea tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Swansea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Swansea 5-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 2.03 xG and Swansea 1.01 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.38 / defence 0.82 against Swansea attack 1.06 / defence 1.40, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 61% | Draw 21% | Swansea 18%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 46%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.77 PPG, Swansea 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.