Norwich 6-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norwich at 72% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norwich face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norwich's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 7D 1L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plymouth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Plymouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Norwich, 1.20 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Norwich, 1 for Plymouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Norwich 2–1 Plymouth — a Norwich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 60% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 56% | Plymouth 53%). Note also that Plymouth surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Norwich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 2.31 xG and Plymouth 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.300 / defence 1.078 | Plymouth attack 0.634 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.062. Norwich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Norwich's projected output up. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Norwich's last 62 games and Plymouth's last 62.
Result probabilities: Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.39 | Draw 5.39 | Plymouth 10.82. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Norwich's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Norwich 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Norwich 2.31 / Plymouth 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.300 / def 1.078 | Plymouth attack 0.634 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Norwich (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Plymouth kick off?
Norwich vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Norwich 6 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Norwich vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Plymouth part of?
Norwich vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 72% chance of winning, Plymouth a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norwich and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Norwich vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Norwich's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.63x) against Norwich's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 62 games and Plymouth's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.39
9%
10.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Norwich xG
Total xG
3.03
0.72
Plymouth xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
10.82
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
1%
108.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Norwich and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Norwich and 0.72 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 17D 21L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 17W 17D 28L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Norwich against 1.10 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Norwich are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 8D 19L from their last 30 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
Norwich (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 24W 17D 21L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Plymouth away?
Norwich's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.90 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Norwich and Plymouth, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norwich won Norwich 6-1 Plymouth on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norwich
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Plymouth 2-1 Norwich.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 57%, Plymouth 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Norwich) and 47% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Norwich keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Plymouth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Norwich's recent matches and 47% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Norwich and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Norwich's recent games and 47% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Norwich's recent matches and 77% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norwich run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Plymouth 6-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.31 xG and Plymouth 0.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Plymouth attack 0.63 / defence 1.32, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 56%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.44 PPG, Plymouth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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