Millwall 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Millwall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Preston travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Millwall have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Preston are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Millwall in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Preston in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Millwall 63% and Preston 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 33% | Preston 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.12 xG and Preston 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.964 / defence 0.986 | Preston attack 0.832 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.140. Data: 27 Millwall games / 28 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 40% | Draw 30% | Preston 30%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Preston 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Millwall as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Preston (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 50% | Preston 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 40% | Draw 30% | Preston 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Millwall 1.12 / Preston 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.964 / def 0.986 | Preston attack 0.832 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Millwall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Preston xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Preston kick off?
Millwall vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Preston?
Millwall 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Millwall vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Preston part of?
Millwall vs Preston is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 40% chance of winning, Preston a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Millwall and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Preston?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Millwall and Preston in?
Millwall (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Preston (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Millwall's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.31
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
Preston xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Millwall and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Millwall and 0.94 for Preston, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Millwall's recent record stands at 9W 9D 9L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 8L across 27 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.33 PPG, Preston on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Millwall are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.19 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Millwall have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Preston in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 9W 9D 9L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Preston have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Preston away?
Millwall's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.69 PPG; Preston away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Millwall and Preston runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Millwall's record when hosting Preston specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Millwall
6
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 4, Preston have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Preston 0-2 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Preston?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Millwall see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 62%, Preston 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Millwall) and 46% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Millwall's recent matches and 38% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Millwall's recent games and 46% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Millwall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall and Preston finished level at 0-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.12 xG and Preston 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Millwall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Preston attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 40% | Draw 30% | Preston 30%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 33%, Preston 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.33 PPG, Preston 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.