Millwall 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Millwall take on Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Millwall (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Burnley have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Millwall against 1.70 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Millwall lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Millwall — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 42% versus Burnley 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 36% | Burnley 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 0.91 xG and Burnley 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.931 / defence 0.996 | Burnley attack 0.976 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.015. Burnley's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Millwall games / 12 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 30% | Draw 37% | Burnley 34%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Burnley 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 50% | Burnley 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 30% | Draw 37% | Burnley 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Millwall 0.91 / Burnley 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.931 / def 0.996 | Burnley attack 0.976 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Burnley kick off?
Millwall vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Burnley?
Millwall 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Millwall vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Burnley part of?
Millwall vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 30% chance of winning, Burnley a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Millwall and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Millwall and Burnley in?
Millwall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Millwall vs Burnley?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Millwall's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.98x) against Millwall's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 58/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.37
37%
2.72
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Millwall xG
Total xG
1.90
0.99
Burnley xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Millwall and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Millwall and 0.99 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 17W 13D 20L from 50 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 25L across 50 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Millwall against 0.94 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 10W 6D 9L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.16 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Burnley in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 17W 13D 20L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while Burnley have gone 11W 14D 25L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Burnley away?
Millwall's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.44 PPG; Burnley away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Millwall or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Burnley in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Millwall
1
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Burnley 3-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 44%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Millwall) and 52% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Millwall's recent matches and 60% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Millwall's recent games and 52% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Burnley tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Burnley in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Millwall defy the odds to beat Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Burnley 1-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 0.91 xG and Burnley 0.99 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Burnley attack 0.98 / defence 0.72, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 30% | Draw 37% | Burnley 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Millwall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 36%, Burnley 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.28 PPG, Burnley 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.