Ipswich 0-0 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ipswich and Wrexham meet at Portman Road in Championship, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Portman Road this season.
Wrexham's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wrexham have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Ipswich, 1.70 for Wrexham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wrexham — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 64% versus Wrexham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 58% | Wrexham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.33 xG and Wrexham 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.087 / defence 1.103 | Wrexham attack 0.858 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.202. Data: 14 Ipswich games / 15 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 41% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 32%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Wrexham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Wrexham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 41% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ipswich 1.33 / Wrexham 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.087 / def 1.103 | Wrexham attack 0.858 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Wrexham xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Wrexham kick off?
Ipswich vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Wrexham?
Ipswich 0 - 0 Wrexham.
Where is Ipswich vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Wrexham part of?
Ipswich vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 41% chance of winning, Wrexham a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ipswich and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Wrexham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Wrexham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.09) and Wrexham's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.86x) against Ipswich's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.70
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.47
1.14
Wrexham xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.14 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ipswich come into this having played 52 games, going 10W 15D 27L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.85 PPG from 52 outings (27W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Ipswich — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ipswich's home form reads 5W 6D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.72 points per game from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.40 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wrexham in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 10W 15D 27L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 27W 15D 10L in their last 52 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 0.84 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Wrexham in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ipswich
1
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Wrexham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Wrexham 5-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 56%, Wrexham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ipswich) and 36% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 40%; Ipswich have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ipswich's recent matches and 48% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ipswich's recent games and 36% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Wrexham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ipswich's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and Wrexham finished level at 0-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.33 xG and Wrexham 1.14 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wrexham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Wrexham attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 41% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 32%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 58%, Wrexham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wrexham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.