Hull City 0-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
West Brom away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Hull City's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Hull City have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, West Brom in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hull City 0W, West Brom 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hull City 26% | West Brom 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 24% | West Brom 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.95 xG and West Brom 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.725 / defence 1.183 | West Brom attack 0.593 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.067. Hull City's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. West Brom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Hull City games / 34 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | West Brom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — West Brom's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 20% | West Brom 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Hull City 0.95 / West Brom 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.725 / def 1.183 | West Brom attack 0.593 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.75
West Brom xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs West Brom kick off?
Hull City vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Hull City 0 - 2 West Brom.
Where is Hull City vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs West Brom part of?
Hull City vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 39% chance of winning, West Brom a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Hull City and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Hull City and West Brom in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. West Brom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.72) and West Brom's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.59x) against Hull City's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.96
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.70
0.75
West Brom xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 13.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hull City and 0.75 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 7D 18L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
West Brom's form line: 12W 10D 12L from 34 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Hull City against 1.35 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 4W 3D 10L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.03 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and West Brom in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 9W 7D 18L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while West Brom have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or West Brom away?
Hull City's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.06 PPG; West Brom away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Hull City or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
West Brom see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Hull City) and 29% (West Brom) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Hull City and 35% for West Brom.
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 47% of games; West Brom in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hull City's recent matches and 29% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Hull City's recent games and 35% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and West Brom tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, West Brom in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 0-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.95 xG and West Brom 0.75 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against West Brom attack 0.59 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 24%, West Brom 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Brom's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.00 PPG, West Brom 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.