Hull City 0-2 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Utd make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sheffield Utd have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sheffield Utd's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Utd are 0.50 PPG clear of Hull City in recent Championship fixtures (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sheffield Utd in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Sheffield Utd and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 38% versus Sheffield Utd 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 36% | Sheffield Utd 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.52 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.132 / defence 1.093 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.996 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.032. Data: 53 Hull City games / 53 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 28%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sheffield Utd 3.57. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sheffield Utd (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Sheffield Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Hull City 1.52 / Sheffield Utd 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.132 / def 1.093 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.996 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sheffield Utd xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Hull City 0 - 2 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 46% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Utd 1W.
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (1.00x) against Hull City's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.92
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.64
1.12
Sheffield Utd xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Hull City and 1.12 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City's recent record stands at 17W 11D 25L from 53 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 14L across 53 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Utd by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 10W 4D 12L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Sheffield Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.31 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hull City or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won 0-3 on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hull City
1
Draws
5
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 42%, Sheffield Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 46% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 38% of games; Sheffield Utd in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hull City's recent matches and 54% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 46% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 0-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.52 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.12 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sheffield Utd outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 46% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 28%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 36%, Sheffield Utd 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.