Hull City 1-3 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and QPR meet at MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hull City at MKM Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MKM Stadium this season.
QPR (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, QPR have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hull City's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hull City, 5 for QPR and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | QPR 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.15 xG and QPR 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.964 / defence 1.163 | QPR attack 0.728 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.164. Data: 77 Hull City games / 78 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 32% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
QPR lead the H2H ledger, but Hull City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 32% | QPR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Hull City 1.15 / QPR 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.964 / def 1.163 | QPR attack 0.728 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.99
QPR xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs QPR kick off?
Hull City vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs QPR?
Hull City 1 - 3 QPR.
Where is Hull City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs QPR part of?
Hull City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 38% chance of winning, QPR a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hull City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
Record (9 meetings): Hull City 3W | Draws 1 | QPR 5W.
What form are Hull City and QPR in?
Hull City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. QPR (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.96) and QPR's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.73x) against Hull City's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 77/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.15
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
QPR xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hull City and 0.99 for QPR, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 28W 19D 30L from 77 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 29L across 77 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Hull City against 1.30 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 13W 11D 15L from 39 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 11W 12D 16L across 39 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 64%.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and QPR in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 28W 19D 30L in their last 77 games (1.34 PPG), while QPR have gone 26W 22D 29L in their last 77 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or QPR away?
Hull City's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.28 PPG; QPR away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, QPR have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 59%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hull City) and 44% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 31% of games; QPR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hull City's games and 54% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hull City's recent games and 44% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and QPR tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, QPR in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 1-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and QPR 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against QPR attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 77/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 38% | Draw 32% | QPR 30%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, QPR 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.34 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.