Hull City 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Hull City take on QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and QPR meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hull City at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, QPR are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Hull City, 3 for QPR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Hull City 3–1 QPR — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 59% versus QPR 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | QPR 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while QPR have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.96 xG and QPR 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.855 / defence 1.189 | QPR attack 0.816 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.977. Data: built from Hull City's last 73 games and QPR's last 73.
Result probabilities: Hull City 33% | Draw 34% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.02 | Draw 2.91 | QPR 3.09. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 28 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 33% | Draw 34% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Hull City 0.96 / QPR 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.855 / def 1.189 | QPR attack 0.816 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.95
QPR xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs QPR FAQs
What time does Hull City vs QPR kick off?
Hull City vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs QPR?
Hull City 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Hull City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs QPR part of?
Hull City vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 33% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hull City and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Hull City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.85) and QPR's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.82x) against Hull City's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 73 games and QPR's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.91
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.91
0.95
QPR xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hull City and 0.95 for QPR, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 25W 21D 27L from 73 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 28L across 73 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Hull City against 1.25 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 9W 15D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across their last 36 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
QPR
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Hull City vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and QPR in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 25W 21D 27L in their last 73 games (1.32 PPG), while QPR have gone 23W 22D 28L in their last 73 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.17 PPG; QPR away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Hull City and QPR, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won Hull City 0-3 QPR on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 3, QPR have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
QPR see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 58%, QPR 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hull City) and 33% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 31%; Hull City have failed to score in 28% of games; QPR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hull City's recent matches and 39% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hull City's recent games and 33% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hull City's recent matches and 56% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.96 xG and QPR 0.95 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against QPR attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 33% | Draw 34% | QPR 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, QPR 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, QPR 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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