Hull City 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 36%, yet in-form Hull City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 33 as Hull City welcome Preston to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Preston — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hull City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hull City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Preston in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hull City, 1 for Preston and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Preston trading profile (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 39% versus Preston 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 38% | Preston 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.22 xG and Preston 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.937 / defence 1.043 | Preston attack 1.056 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.136. Data: 78 Hull City games / 77 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 28% | Preston 36%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Preston 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Preston as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Preston 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 28% | Preston 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Hull City 1.22 / Preston 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.937 / def 1.043 | Preston attack 1.056 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Preston (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Preston xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Preston kick off?
Hull City vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Preston?
Hull City 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Hull City vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Preston part of?
Hull City vs Preston is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 35% chance of winning, Preston a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hull City and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Preston?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 1 | Preston 1W.
What form are Hull City and Preston in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Preston (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.94) and Preston's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.53
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Preston xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hull City and 1.25 for Preston, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City's recent record stands at 24W 17D 36L from 77 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 26L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.16 PPG, Preston on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 13W 7D 18L from 38 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 15W 9D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.04 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Preston in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 24W 17D 36L in their last 77 games (1.16 PPG), while Preston have gone 27W 24D 26L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.21 PPG; Preston away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Hull City or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Preston in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Hull City won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Preston specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hull City
4
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 4, Preston have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Preston 0-3 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Preston?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 45%, Preston 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 45% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 37%; Hull City have failed to score in 37% of games; Preston in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Hull City's recent matches and 37% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 45% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Preston tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Preston in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Hull City and Preston drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.22 xG and Preston 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Preston landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Preston attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 35% | Draw 28% | Preston 36%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 38%, Preston 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.16 PPG, Preston 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.