Hull City 1-3 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Millwall meet at MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 4W 1D 5L at MKM Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MKM Stadium this season.
Millwall (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Championship this season, Millwall have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Hull City are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Hull City winning.
The historical record gives Hull City a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Millwall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | Millwall 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.20 xG and Millwall 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.091 / defence 1.266 | Millwall attack 1.013 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.206. Data: 81 Hull City games / 81 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Millwall 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Millwall 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Hull City 1.20 / Millwall 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.091 / def 1.266 | Millwall attack 1.013 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Millwall (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Millwall xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Millwall kick off?
Hull City vs Millwall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Hull City 1 - 3 Millwall.
Where is Hull City vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Millwall part of?
Hull City vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 28% chance of winning, Millwall a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hull City and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
Record (7 meetings): Hull City 4W | Draws 3 | Millwall 0W.
What form are Hull City and Millwall in?
Hull City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Millwall (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.09x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (1.01x) against Hull City's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 81/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.65
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.75
1.55
Millwall xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hull City and 1.55 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 30W 19D 32L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Millwall's form line: 36W 20D 25L from 81 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Hull City against 1.58 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (14W 10D 16L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 14W 13D 13L from 40 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Millwall in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 30W 19D 32L in their last 81 games (1.35 PPG), while Millwall have gone 36W 20D 25L in their last 81 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Millwall away?
Millwall's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.30 PPG; Millwall away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hull City or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Millwall in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
4
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Millwall have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Millwall?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Millwall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hull City) and 35% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 35%; Hull City have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Millwall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hull City's games and 50% of Millwall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hull City's recent games and 35% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Millwall tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Millwall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Hull City 1-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.20 xG and Millwall 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Millwall outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.09 / defence 1.27 against Millwall attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Millwall 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Millwall's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Millwall 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Millwall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.