Hull City 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 49%, yet in-form Hull City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Derby travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 18 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Championship fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.92 xG and Derby 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.802 / defence 1.333 | Derby attack 0.784 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 1.488. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Hull City games / 2 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 19% | Draw 32% | Derby 49%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Derby 2.04. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 19% | Draw 32% | Derby 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Hull City 0.92 / Derby 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.802 / def 1.333 | Derby attack 0.784 / def 1.261 | league avg home 0.909 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Derby (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Derby kick off?
Hull City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Hull City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Derby part of?
Hull City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 19% chance of winning, Derby a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hull City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Derby in?
Hull City (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L. Derby (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.80x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
19%
5.24
32%
3.14
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.47
1.56
Derby xG
5.24
19%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
4%
24.85
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Hull City and 1.56 for Derby, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Derby in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Derby have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hull City's games and 100% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hull City's matches and 50% of Derby's.
Do Hull City and Derby tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Derby in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.92 xG and Derby 1.56 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.80 / defence 1.33 against Derby attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 19% | Draw 32% | Derby 49%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 100%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derby conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.