Fulham 3-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Preston travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Preston have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fulham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fulham, 0 for Preston and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Preston trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Preston 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 54% | Preston 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.54 xG and Preston 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.363 / defence 1.224 | Preston attack 0.619 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.132. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Fulham games / 42 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Preston 21%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Preston 4.76. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Preston 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Preston 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Fulham 1.54 / Preston 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.363 / def 1.224 | Preston attack 0.619 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Preston xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Preston kick off?
Fulham vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Preston?
Fulham 3 - 0 Preston.
Where is Fulham vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Preston part of?
Fulham vs Preston is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 53% chance of winning, Preston a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fulham and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 1 | Preston 0W.
What form are Fulham and Preston in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Preston (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fulham's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.89
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.40
0.86
Preston xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
4%
22.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Fulham and 0.86 for Preston, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Fulham have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 25W 8D 8L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Preston's form line: 14W 16D 11L from 41 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preston.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, Preston have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Preston in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 8D 8L in their last 41 games (2.02 PPG), while Preston have gone 14W 16D 11L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Preston away?
Fulham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.00 PPG; Preston away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Fulham or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Preston in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Preston?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Preston have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Fulham 3-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Preston?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 60%, Preston 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fulham) and 35% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Preston in 35%; Preston in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fulham's recent matches and 30% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fulham's recent games and 35% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Preston tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Preston in 35% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Preston 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.54 xG and Preston 0.86 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.36 / defence 1.22 against Preston attack 0.62 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Preston 21%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 54%, Preston 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Preston's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.