Fulham 2-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 13 as Fulham welcome Cardiff to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 20 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Fulham have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 75% and Cardiff 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 67% | Cardiff 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.30 xG and Cardiff 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.392 / defence 1.056 | Cardiff attack 0.837 / defence 1.556. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.116. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.556 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Fulham games / 12 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 66% | Draw 20% | Cardiff 14%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Cardiff 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 67% | Cardiff 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 66% | Draw 20% | Cardiff 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Fulham 2.30 / Cardiff 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.392 / def 1.056 | Cardiff attack 0.837 / def 1.556 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Fulham (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cardiff xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Cardiff kick off?
Fulham vs Cardiff kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Cardiff?
Fulham 2 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Fulham vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Cardiff part of?
Fulham vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 66% chance of winning, Cardiff a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Cardiff in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.39x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.06
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.29
0.99
Cardiff xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
10%
10.01
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
1%
71.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Fulham and 0.99 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fulham's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Cardiff away?
Fulham's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.17 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Cardiff have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Cardiff 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Cardiff?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 67%, Cardiff 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fulham and 67% for Cardiff. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cardiff in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fulham's games and 50% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 67% of Cardiff's.
Do Fulham and Cardiff tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Cardiff 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.30 xG and Cardiff 0.99 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.39 / defence 1.06 against Cardiff attack 0.84 / defence 1.56, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 66% | Draw 20% | Cardiff 14%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 67%, Cardiff 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.