Derby 1-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 37%, yet in-form West Brom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derby vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 24 as Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
West Brom — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. West Brom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Derby's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 0 for West Brom and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
West Brom in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus West Brom 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 32% | West Brom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.04 xG and West Brom 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.001 / defence 1.128 | West Brom attack 0.744 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.093. Data: 22 Derby games / 23 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 34% | West Brom 30%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | West Brom 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Brom (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | West Brom 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 34% | West Brom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Derby 1.04 / West Brom 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.001 / def 1.128 | West Brom attack 0.744 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Derby (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.92
West Brom xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs West Brom kick off?
Derby vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs West Brom?
Derby 1 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Derby vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs West Brom part of?
Derby vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, West Brom a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Derby and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Derby and West Brom in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.00x the league average against West Brom's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
37%
2.73
34%
2.98
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Derby xG
Total xG
1.96
0.92
West Brom xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Derby and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Derby and 0.92 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 10D 7L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (11W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 4W 5D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.27 scored and 0.68 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; West Brom in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and West Brom in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 5W 10D 7L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while West Brom have gone 11W 7D 4L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or West Brom away?
Derby's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.55 PPG; West Brom away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Derby or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, West Brom in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
0
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, West Brom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Derby 1-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Derby and West Brom?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 64%, West Brom 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 46% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; West Brom in 36%; West Brom in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Derby's recent matches and 36% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Derby's recent games and 46% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and West Brom tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, West Brom in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out West Brom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat West Brom 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.04 xG and West Brom 0.92 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against West Brom attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 37% | Draw 34% | West Brom 30%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 32%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Brom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.