Derby 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Nottingham Forest in Championship, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.25 PPG across 4 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: D L W D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's overall Championship record this term: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.25 in Derby's favour (1.25 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Nottingham Forest goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 50% and Nottingham Forest 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 25% | Nottingham Forest 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.91 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.812 / defence 0.931 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.652 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.491. Nottingham Forest bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Derby games / 4 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 33%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Nottingham Forest 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. This conflicts with form data: Derby 50% | Nottingham Forest 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Derby 0.91 / Nottingham Forest 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.812 / def 0.931 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.652 / def 1.211 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Derby (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Nottingham Forest xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Derby vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Nottingham Forest?
Derby 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Derby vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Derby vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 34% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Derby and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Nottingham Forest?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Nottingham Forest in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-W-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.65x) against Derby's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
34%
2.97
33%
3.04
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Derby xG
Total xG
1.81
0.91
Nottingham Forest xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Derby and 0.91 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby's recent record stands at 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 4L across 4 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest in 75%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
Have Derby or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Nottingham Forest 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Nottingham Forest 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Derby) and 75% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Derby's games and 75% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Derby's recent games and 75% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Derby and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.91 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.91 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 34% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 33%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 25%, Nottingham Forest 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.