Derby 1-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 20 as Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park this season.
Millwall — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Derby) versus 2.00 (Millwall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Millwall 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Millwall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Millwall trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 54% versus Millwall 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 43% | Millwall 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.37 xG and Millwall 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.896 / defence 1.146 | Millwall attack 0.947 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.220. Data: 65 Derby games / 65 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 27% | Millwall 36%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Millwall 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Millwall 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 27% | Millwall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Derby 1.37 / Millwall 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.896 / def 1.146 | Millwall attack 0.947 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Derby (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Millwall xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Millwall kick off?
Derby vs Millwall kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 10 December 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Millwall?
Derby 1 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Derby vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Millwall part of?
Derby vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, Millwall a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Derby and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 2 | Millwall 2W.
What form are Derby and Millwall in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Millwall (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.90x the league average against Millwall's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.71
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Derby xG
Total xG
2.69
1.32
Millwall xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Derby and 1.32 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Derby have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 20W 16D 29L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Millwall's form line: 28W 16D 21L from 65 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.17 PPG, Millwall on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 10W 11D 11L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.08 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Millwall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Millwall in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Millwall have gone 28W 16D 21L in their last 65 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Millwall away?
Derby's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.28 PPG; Millwall away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Derby or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Millwall in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Millwall runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Millwall specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Millwall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 44%, Millwall 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Derby) and 38% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Millwall in 31%; Derby have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Derby's recent matches and 53% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Millwall tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Millwall in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Millwall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 20, as Derby and Millwall drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.37 xG and Millwall 1.32 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Millwall attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 37% | Draw 27% | Millwall 36%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Millwall 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Millwall's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.17 PPG, Millwall 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.