Derby 0-0 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Middlesbrough at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Championship matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Middlesbrough — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Championship fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.33 PPG versus Middlesbrough's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Middlesbrough in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 67% and Middlesbrough 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 33% | Middlesbrough 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.01 xG and Middlesbrough 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.953 / defence 1.094 | Middlesbrough attack 0.794 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.522. Data: 3 Derby games / 3 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 31% | Middlesbrough 42%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Middlesbrough 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 67% | Middlesbrough 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 31% | Middlesbrough 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 1.01 / Middlesbrough 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.953 / def 1.094 | Middlesbrough attack 0.794 / def 1.148 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Middlesbrough xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Derby vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Derby 0 - 0 Middlesbrough.
Where is Derby vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Middlesbrough part of?
Derby vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 27% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Middlesbrough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Middlesbrough in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W. Middlesbrough (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.95) and Middlesbrough's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
27%
3.69
31%
3.26
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Derby xG
Total xG
2.33
1.32
Middlesbrough xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Derby and 1.32 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.33 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Middlesbrough in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Middlesbrough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Derby or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Middlesbrough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Middlesbrough won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Middlesbrough?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Middlesbrough have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derby at 67%, Middlesbrough at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Derby) and 67% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Middlesbrough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Derby's games and 100% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Derby's recent games and 67% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Derby and Middlesbrough drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.01 xG and Middlesbrough 1.32 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Middlesbrough landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Middlesbrough attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 27% | Draw 31% | Middlesbrough 42%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 33%, Middlesbrough 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.33 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.