Derby 1-3 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Bristol City travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bristol City stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.00 PPG, Bristol City 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Bristol City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Bristol City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bristol City in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 51% and Bristol City 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Bristol City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.83 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.072 / defence 0.961 | Bristol City attack 0.873 / defence 1.623. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.128. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.623 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Derby games / 43 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 58% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 19%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Bristol City 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Derby (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Bristol City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 58% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.83 / Bristol City 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.072 / def 0.961 | Bristol City attack 0.873 / def 1.623 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Derby (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bristol City xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bristol City kick off?
Derby vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Bristol City?
Derby 1 - 3 Bristol City.
Where is Derby vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Bristol City part of?
Derby vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 58% chance of winning, Bristol City a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bristol City?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Bristol City 1W.
What form are Derby and Bristol City in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bristol City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.07) and Bristol City's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.42
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Derby xG
Total xG
2.78
0.95
Bristol City xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
32.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Derby and 0.95 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bristol City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 13W 13D 17L from 43 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bristol City, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 20L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.21 PPG, Bristol City on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 11W 7D 3L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bristol City's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.26 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bristol City away?
Derby's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.90 PPG; Bristol City away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Derby or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bristol City in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Derby won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Bristol City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bristol City?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Bristol City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bristol City 0-5 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Bristol City 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Derby) and 71% (Bristol City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bristol City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Derby's games and 62% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Derby's matches and 71% of Bristol City's.
Do Derby and Bristol City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bristol City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Derby 1-3 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.83 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bristol City outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Bristol City attack 0.87 / defence 1.62, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 58% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 19%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Bristol City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Bristol City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.21 PPG, Bristol City 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.