Coventry 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Derby at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coventry — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coventry at The Coventry Building Society Arena this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Coventry Building Society Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Coventry are significantly better at The Coventry Building Society Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Coventry have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 46% versus Derby 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coventry 54% | Derby 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.36 xG and Derby 0.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.338 / defence 0.847 | Derby attack 0.499 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.126. Coventry carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Coventry games / 13 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 58% | Draw 30% | Derby 12%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.72 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (58%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Derby's lower xG of 0.47 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 50% | Derby 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 58% | Draw 30% | Derby 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 29% | xG Coventry 1.36 / Derby 0.47 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.338 / def 0.847 | Derby attack 0.499 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Coventry (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.47
Derby xG
29%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Derby kick off?
Coventry vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Derby?
Coventry 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Coventry vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Derby part of?
Coventry vs Derby is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 58% chance of winning, Derby a 12% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Coventry and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coventry and Derby in?
Coventry (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Derby (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coventry's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 0.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 20.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.3%), 2-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
58%
1.73
30%
3.28
12%
8.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Coventry xG
Total xG
1.83
0.47
Derby xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
8.51
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
62%
1.61
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
3%
33.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 21.7 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Coventry and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Coventry and 0.47 for Derby, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 7W 2D 4L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 3W 7D 3L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coventry are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coventry have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Coventry are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.69 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Derby in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Derby have gone 3W 7D 3L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Derby away?
Coventry's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 3.00 PPG; Derby away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Coventry or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Derby in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coventry go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Coventry's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coventry
2
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Coventry have won 2, Derby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coventry 3-2 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Derby tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Coventry 50% BTTS, Derby 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Coventry) and 17% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Derby in 50%; Derby in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coventry's recent matches and 17% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Coventry's recent games and 17% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Derby tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coventry and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry and Derby finished level at 1-1 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.36 xG and Derby 0.47 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.34 / defence 0.85 against Derby attack 0.50 / defence 0.96, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 58% | Draw 30% | Derby 12%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 54%, Derby 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.