Charlton 1-5 Southampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Southampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Southampton in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Southampton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Southampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Southampton have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Charlton's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Southampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 42% versus Southampton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Southampton 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.56 xG and Southampton 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.962 / defence 0.864 | Southampton attack 0.969 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.171. Southampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Charlton games / 15 Southampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 25% | Southampton 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Southampton 4.17. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 40% | Southampton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Southampton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 25% | Southampton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Charlton 1.56 / Southampton 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.962 / def 0.864 | Southampton attack 0.969 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Charlton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Southampton xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Southampton kick off?
Charlton vs Southampton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Southampton?
Charlton 1 - 5 Southampton.
Where is Charlton vs Southampton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Southampton part of?
Charlton vs Southampton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Southampton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 51% chance of winning, Southampton a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Southampton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charlton and Southampton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Southampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Southampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Southampton in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Southampton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.96x the league average against Southampton's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Southampton's attack (0.97x) against Charlton's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.94
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Southampton xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
5%
20.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Southampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Southampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Southampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 14D 11L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Southampton sit at 0.57 PPG from 53 outings (6W 12D 35L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Southampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Southampton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Charlton's home form reads 18W 6D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Southampton have taken 0.58 points per game from 26 outings (3W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Southampton are on 0.83 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Southampton in 62%.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Southampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Southampton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 28W 14D 11L in their last 53 games (1.85 PPG), while Southampton have gone 6W 12D 35L in their last 53 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Southampton away?
Charlton's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.31 PPG; Southampton away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Charlton or Southampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Southampton in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Southampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Southampton?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Southampton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Southampton last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Southampton 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Southampton?
Southampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 46%, Southampton 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charlton) and 62% (Southampton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Southampton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Southampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Southampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Charlton's games and 73% of Southampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Southampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Charlton's matches and 62% of Southampton's.
Do Charlton and Southampton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Southampton in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Southampton run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Southampton beat Charlton 1-5 at The Valley, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.56 xG and Southampton 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Southampton outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Southampton attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 25% | Southampton 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Southampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Southampton 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Southampton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Southampton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Southampton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.